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Alex K. Chen's avatar

This is surprisingly good and hits a critical inflection point of our social evolution. I'm super relieved that it doesn't contain traces of the excess moralizing that I've grown extremely averse towards. Hmpf. I grew up obsessed with moral relativism (+had the typical aversion towards democracies [though GWB triggered this in many liberals]), which is not the ideal solution, but just one solution to being trapped in a system that prevented ppl of my generation from having any agency whatsoever

Similarly I grew up obsessed with thiel, who is highly imperfect, but is still the apotheosis of the self-knowledge of how we've let extreme levels of unnecessary stupidity hold us back from real progress (and he's the ONLY person who appropriately ACTS on said anger, whereas most other people are "dead enough" to content themselves with mediocrity, not having enough "aliveness" to act on what's truly lost). I guess I need a revolutionary anger-driven figure to inspire me, which is why I'm largely uninspired by any of the purported "great men" of any democracy - they're just "lame" compared to what *could* be possible from the viewpoint of those who aren't constrained by checks and balances. I think the imaginative space/agility of people today is *much* larger than those before (+we theoretically have more "abundance"), which can prevent the "worst excesses" of dictatorship from happening again.

I'm still angry and sus at both K12 and Asian parenting and how they've basically destroyed another generation, but we can do so much better, and as emotionally appealing as it is to say that we just want to "blow up the schools" and unschool everyone, it may not be the globally optimal solution compared to those I've seen at ad astera (still a better solution than 95% of schools and parents though...)

I've been reading up on early Christianity lately and find it quite oddly inspirational (ESP IN THE INTERNAL INTEGRITY IT INSPIRES IN PEOPLE, *and* just HOW contrarian/courageous you needed to be to believe in it IN ITS EARLY DAYS), though I'm still very anti-(what it has become).

#theplot

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Vote4Pedro's avatar

Virgin political theorist: People voted for Trump because of Fatherneed. Chad rando who actually watched Trump's speeches: voters let him hit it cuz he's goofy.

Even the best autocrat can't compete with mediocre democracy and I doubt any kind of fancy new system can change that. Unless they are into abusive dads, people with Fatherneed should look elsewhere for a solution. The incentives of an autocracy are all wrong. The autocrat is not free, as everyone (even Aristotle, who should have known better!) seems to imagine. The higher power the autocrat must submit to is the collective will of the generals, who can depose him at will if they collaborate to do so. And that has implications for how the state has to be run. The military must be paid, before all else, and the generals must be paid lavishly enough that they prefer the incumbent to a coup. A coup normally carries risk, but failure to pay the agreed rates provides them all a point they can coordinate around, knowing the other generals can be trusted to recognize this as the point at which their peers will also prefer, and assist in, a coup.

In poorer states the military eats up the entire budget and even the dictator is poor; in relatively wealthier ones the leader can decide whether to feather his own nest or try investing a bit in the welfare of the people, and most choose the former. The best an autocrat can ever aspire to is to pay the soldiers first, and then throw the leftovers to the people. By and large the bad ones aren't incompetent; they are highly competent and simply optimizing for something different than what you want them to optimize for. You can't get better ones because they have a selection process, and accountability to their selectorate, just like democratic leaders do. That selectorate is not the people at large, but whoever commands the raw physical power of guns or whatever is the weapon of the day.

The obvious question: why doesn't this also happen in democracies, which also have a military and lots of ambitious generals? The answer: because a general who wants to depose the President can try without risking his life or freedom, and without inheriting a temporarily crippled government, by running for President. Given the difficulties inherent in organizing a coup, the success rate of being a candidate, able to coordinate a campaign with any willing supporter out in the open, may be just as high or higher than the success rate of coup attempts. And, in a democracy that also has effective protection from arbitrary arrest, there is a further anti-coup equilibrium. A successful coup might result in better pay, but it also means more physical danger and miserable working conditions, and not just in the coup period itself. The new dictator can assassinate generals of questionable loyalty at will any time they are not united against him, and the new dictator can be murdered at will any time the generals are united. Any general who persists in the desire for a coup despite all this still faces the fact that his peers are dis-incentivized by all these factors, and so can't be relied upon to help. The end result is all the players benefit from leaving the selection in the hands of the people. And that in turn means candidates must appeal more to the desires of the people and less to the desires of the generals, which pushes more of the budget to investment in the people or toward tax cuts, and pushes toward greater freedom for the average citizen.

Suggested reading: The Dictator's Handbook, by Bueno de Mesquita. Alternately, CGPGrey's summary video, Rules for Rulers.

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